Month: October 2013

STRATFOR on Changes in US Foreign Policy

Click here for a thought provoking, and conventional wisdom challenging, post from STATFOR. It is a bit out of the box but may also be quite inciteful. U.S. and Iranian Realities is republished here with the permission of Stratfor. 

The world continues to change: e.g., the lessening dependence on Mideast oil for affordable energy. The article suggests that serious consideration be given to a change in direction in foreign policy and alliances. It also shows the major risks such a change entails. Perhaps most interestingly in overlaps the chess moves implicit in foreign policy with the national sentiments of the body politic. In this case both the Iranian and the US public have long memories: Iran has not forgiven the US for the 1952 coup and more than the US has forgotten the Hostage Crisis. These popular sentiments may, in many ways, limit the ability of either side to exercise new and perhaps beneficial policies. 
It is too early to sort this one out but it bears monitoring. 

 

Musing on big changes…

As most of you know, this Grumpy Gringo constantly mutters that change is happening right under our feet despite all of our denials and platitudes. Click here to read an article indicating just how life continues to change while remaining the same. But before you get to that article, please note the following splash from the Wall Street Journal yesterday:
U.S. Poised to Overtake Russia as Largest Oil-and-Gas Producer
The U.S. is poised to overtake Russia as the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas this year, a startling shift that is reshaping energy markets and eroding the clout of traditional petroleum-rich nations.
Shale-rock formations of oil and natural gas have fueled a comeback for the U.S. that was unimaginable a decade ago. Russia meanwhile has struggled to maintain its energy output and has yet to embrace the technologies such as hydraulic fracturing that have boosted U.S. reserves.
Hydraulic fracturing is a big challenge for your generation. On the one hand it frees us from excessive involvement with Middle Eastern regimes in order to have access to cheap energy. The shift of focus in US policy from the Middle East to Asia is already well under way. On the other hand, unregulated hydraulic fracturing is a huge environmental challenge. Because of the money involved, power games will be fought on the global chess board to sort out “who’s on first”! Getting that balance right, i.e., access to low priced energy while protecting and sustaining the environment, is the small problem my generation trusts yours to work out!

In the meantime, greetings from Assisi (Italy). We’re celebrating St. Francis’ feast day tomorrow. I think he should be named patron saint of the environment but that’s just a crazy old Grumpy Gringo muttering under his breath.