John Allen pointed out in today’s NCR three truisms surrounding papal conclaves:
* He who enters as a pope exits as a cardinal.
* You follow a fat pope with a thin one.
* This is the most secretive process in the world.
Actually, recent conclaves actually suggest favorites tend to be elected (4 out of the last 6)
- 1939: favorite Eugenio Pacelli (Pius XII)
- 1958: surprise Angelo Roncalli, (John XXIII)
- 1963: favorite Giovanni Battista Montini (Paul VI)
- 1978 (I) favorite Albino Luciani (John Paul I)
- 1978 (II) surprise: Karol Wojtyla (John Paul II)
- 2005: favorite Joseph Ratzinger (Benedict XVI)
You follow a fat pope with a thin one
- Pius XII (thin) –> John XXIII (fat) –> Paul VI (thin) –> John Paul I (thin), –> John Paul II (fat) –> Benedict XVI (thin)
- If this is an analogy for a successor pope who will break with policies of predecessor, the contrary is more often suggested.
This is the most secretive process in the world
- Allen notes: “perhaps this is more honored in the breach than in the observance.” Enough said!